labs:covid19_cfr_reports

Archived novel coronavirus (COVID-19) estimated case fatality rate (CFR) reports

04/11/2020 | COVID-19 Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 04/11/2020, IIRESS Labs

Figure 1. As of April 11th, 3:00 AM PST, for the US, Johns Hopkins currently reports 501,615 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 and 18,777 deaths. US COVID-19 estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR) had peaked at around 7.4% (03/03/2020) following a series of deaths in a nursing home in King County, Washington then fell to a low point of 1.2% on 03/21/2020 as testing rates picked up nationally. Following the low point on 3/21, US CFR began to rise again and currently sits at 3.74%. This trend is consistent with the “testing lag” hypothesis, and that states and federal agencies are now ramping up testing capacity to meet the true spread of the disease in the US. The sharp decline of US CFR from 7.4% to 1.2% highlights the importance of rapid COVID-19 testing to identify early-stage illness. Of the 501,615 (worldometers.info) active US cases, 11,059 (2.2%) of them are reported as critical or severe, a stark contrast for the expected 20% critical rate published by the World Health Organization (WHO), meaning that the continuation of additional US fatalities is extremely high and that critical cases are currently under-reported. Experts have suggested that vast numbers of individuals are currently infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus nationally and that increased testing has revealed the true scope of the disease.

Recently, the US Federal Coronavirus Taskforce has embraced an anticipated fatality count of 100,000 to 240,000 US citizens, a conservative estimate based on the current trend of social distancing and state-wide “stay-at-home” orders limiting the spread of the disease (Source: Vox). This is critical because it represents an official endorsement from the US Federal Government that the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 is much more severe than the flu (Source: Vox). As of April 9th, this report has been revised down to 61,000 expected total fatalities in the US (Source: NPR) based on improved modeling data and continued social distancing practices.

Relative to other countries, the US had maintained a much higher CFR than South Korea (3-4% vs. South Korea's consistently less than 2% CFR), but as testing rates increased in the US and fatality rates caught up with confirmed case rates in South Korea, the two countries had converged to statistically similar CFRs (1.52% in the US vs. 1.42% in South Korea on 03/25/2020). However, the current trend in the US is an increase in CFR meaning that the scope of disease transmission in the US might still be underestimated, and US CFR is once again diverging from South Korea (3.74% in the US vs. 2.01% in South Korea). The general trend for both countries is an increasing CFR. Meanwhile, Italy has continued its trend of vastly outranking the world in death per confirmed case (CFR) with an estimated 12.77% CFR, but has since been surpassed by the US in terms of total deaths (20,467 US deaths vs. 19,468 Italy deaths, 4/11/2020 – 3:00 PM PST, worldometers.info. China has only reported 29 new deaths in the month of April, a stark contrast to the US’ 16,403 reported April deaths (worldometers.info). Recently, the United Kingdom has also posted a significantly disturbing CFR (12.03%), along with Spain and France (10.16% and 10.49%) respectively.

Globally, the average CFR has been on an increasing trend, with the global CFR of 3.4% being having been breached since March 10th. Today, the global average CFR is 6.07%, an increase most likely driven by high fatality countries still experiencing the exponential phase of their epidemics, including Italy, Spain, Iran, France, the UK, and the US. In contrast to the high fatality rate countries, both Germany and Australian CFRs have remained low (2.24% and 0.89% respectively), suggesting these countries are similar indicators of “best case” scenarios, including South Korea as well. I would expect an optimal testing scenario to yield CFRs similar to the range exhibited by these countries (0.89% to 2.24%), although as previously mentioned, both Australia and Germany might be much earlier in their epidemic phase compared to South Korea, which is no longer experiencing exponential growth. All three of the countries continue to see increases in their CFRs, which is evidence suggesting these countries are still experiencing epidemic-level spread of COVID-19.

Current estimates of US national testing rates by the CDC and Public Health Labs suggest at least 275,012 US individuals had been tested for COVID-19 (CDC+Public Health Labs combined), compared to South Korea's 510,479 tested as of 04/11/2020. Private or other sources of testing are not counted in this data. As of April 13th, 2020 - 2,821,149 tests have been performed in the US combining CDC, Public Health Laboratories, and Commercial Laboratories (John Hopkins CSSE). (Data source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE 02/27/2020-04/11/2020; worldometers.info; South Korea testing stats: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030; US Testing stats: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html).

Archived CFR Reports With Figures & Text: Archived COVID-19 CFR Reports

* Note, crude estimates of case fatality rates during an outbreak are expected to be variable and change as the outbreak/epidemic persists. Final numbers comparable to previous outbreaks will not likely be available until weeks or months after the epidemic phase of outbreaks in many countries has cleared. In the mean time, we use these figures to analyze and assess trends within and across countries to better understand the differences in response strategies of the medical infrastructure of each region. We believe using time-series data of the CFR during an outbreak is a useful metric and caution users not to over-interpret the statistic when making behavioral decisions related to the epidemic. For scientific analysis of CFRs, see the below section or click here.

(Updated 04/11/2020)


04/05/2020 | COVID-19 Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

Table 1. IIRESS Labs running COVID-19 Estimated CFR (CFR) - 04/09/2020

Country Infections Deaths CFR 95% Confidence Interval
Italy 143626 18279 12.73% (12.55 - 12.90%)
UK 65872 7993 12.13% (11.88 - 12.38%)
France 118785 12228 10.29% (10.12 - 10.47%)
Spain 153222 15447 10.08% (9.93 - 10.23%)
China 82924 3340 4.03% (3.89 - 4.16%)
USA 466299 16686 3.58% (3.53 - 3.63%)
Germany 118235 2607 2.20% (2.12 - 2.29%)
South Korea 10450 208 1.99% (1.72 - 2.26%)
Australia 6108 51 0.83% (0.61 - 1.06%)
Global 1602885 85735 5.35% (5.31 - 5.38%)

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 04/01/2020, IIRESS Labs

Figure 1. As of April 1st, for the US, Johns Hopkins currently reports 216,721 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 and 5,137 deaths. US COVID-19 estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR) had peaked at around 7.4% (03/03/2020) following a series of deaths in a nursing home in King County, Washington then fell to a low point of 1.2% on 03/21/2020 as testing rates picked up nationally. Following the low point on 3/21, US CFR began to rise again and currently sits at 2.37%. This trend is consistent with the “testing lag” hypothesis, and that states and federal agencies are now ramping up testing capacity to meet the true spread of the disease in the US. The sharp decline of US CFR from 7.4% to 1.2% highlights the importance of rapid COVID-19 testing to identify early-stage illness. Of the 201,354 (worldometers.info) active US cases, 5,005 (2.5%) of them are reported as critical or severe, a stark contrast for the expected 20% critical rate published by the World Health Organization (WHO), meaning that the chance of additional US fatalities is extremely high and that critical cases are currently under-reported. Experts have suggested that vast numbers of individuals are currently infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus nationally and that increased testing has revealed the true scope of the disease. Recently, the US Federal Coronavirus Taskforce has embraced an anticipated fatality count of 100,000 to 240,000 US citizens, a conservative estimate based on the current trend of social distancing and state-wide “stay-at-home” orders limiting the spread of the disease (Source: Vox). This is critical because it represents an official endorsement from the US Federal Government that the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 is much more severe than the flu (Source: Vox).

Relative to other countries, the US had maintained a much higher CFR than South Korea (3-4% vs. South Korea's consistently less than 2% CFR), but as testing rates increased in the US and fatality rates caught up with confirmed case rates in South Korea, the two countries had converged to statistically similar CFRs (1.52% in the US vs. 1.42% in South Korea on 03/25/2020). However, the current trend in the US is an increase in CFR meaning that the scope of disease transmission in the US might still be underestimated, and US CFR is once again diverging from South Korea (2.37% in the US vs. 1.69% in South Korea).

Meanwhile, Italy has continued its trend of vastly outranking the world in deaths with a 11.91% CFR. At the time of this writing (04/01/2020), Italy has surpassed China by around 4 fold the number of reported deaths, making it the most impacted country to date in terms of clinical severity. Spain, France, and the US have also surpassed China in terms of reported deaths. Globally, the average CFR has been on an increasing trend, with the global CFR of 3.4% being having been breached since March 10th. Today, the global average CFR is 5.04%, an increase most likely driven by high fatality countries still experiencing the exponential phase of their epidemics, including Italy, Spain, Iran, France, the UK, and the US. As France and the UK enter their early to mid points in the epidemiological curve, they are currently experiencing high CFRs as well (7.00% and 7.89% respectively).

In contrast, both Germany and Australian CFRs have remained low (1.19% and 0.47% respectively), suggesting these countries might be better indicators of “best case” scenarios, as opposed to South Korea. I would expect an optimal testing scenario to yield CFRs similar to South Korea's 1.69%, although as previously mentioned Germany and Australia have demonstrated lower numbers are possible, but both of these countries might be much earlier in their epidemic phase compared to South Korea, which is no longer experiencing exponential growth. That being said, both Germany and Australia have seen recent upticks in their CFRs, which is evidence suggesting these countries are still in the early to mid phases of their epidemiological curves.

In terms of clinical severity of the disease, the CDC has recently published a report on fatality rate by demographic group in the US, which closely matches what was previously published by the WHO: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm. Current estimates of US national testing rates suggest at least 157,847 US individuals had been tested for COVID-19 (CDC+Public Health Labs combined), compared to South Korea's 431,743 tested as of 04/01/2020. (Data source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE 02/27/2020-04/01/2020; worldometers.info; South Korea testing stats: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030; US Testing stats: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html).

Archived CFR Reports With Figures & Text: Archived COVID-19 CFR Reports

* Note, crude estimates of case fatality rates during an outbreak are expected to be variable and change as the outbreak/epidemic persists. Final numbers comparable to previous outbreaks will not likely be available until weeks or months after the epidemic phase of outbreaks in many countries has cleared. In the mean time, we use these figures to analyze and assess trends within and across countries to better understand the differences in response strategies of the medical infrastructure of each region. We believe using time-series data of the CFR during an outbreak is a useful metric and caution users not to over-interpret the statistic when making behavioral decisions related to the epidemic. For scientific analysis of CFRs, see the below section or click here.

(Updated 04/05/2020)

03/25/2020 | COVID-19 Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

IIRESS Labs running COVID-19 CFR estimates (updated 03/25/2020)

  • Global CFR: 4.51% (95% CI, 4.45-4.57%)
  • US CFR: 1.52% (95% CI, 1.43-1.61%)
  • Italy CFR: 10.1% (95% CI, 9.87-10.31%)
  • South Korea CFR: 1.42% (95% CI, 1.19-1.68%)
  • Germany CFR: 0.55% (95% CI, 0.48-0.63%)
  • Australia CFR: 0.34% (95% CI, 0.15-0.67%)

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 03/25/2020, IIRESS Labs

Figure 1. As of March 25th, for the US, Johns Hopkins currently reports 69,197 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 and 1050 deaths. US COVID-19 CFR had peaked at around 7.4% (03/03/2020) following a series of deaths in a nursing home in King County, Washington then has continued to fall to 1.52% (03/25/2020) as testing rates picked up nationally. This is consistent with the “testing lag” hypothesis, and that states and federal agencies are now ramping up testing capacity. The sharp decline of US CFR from 7.4% to 1.52% highlights the importance of rapid COVID-19 testing to identify early-stage illness. Of the 69,197 (worldometers.info) active US cases, 1,455 (2.1%) of them are reported as critical or severe, a stark contrast for the expected 20% critical rate published by the World Health Organization (WHO), meaning that the chance of additional US fatalities is extremely high and that critical cases are currently under-reported. Experts have suggested that vast numbers of individuals are currently infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus nationally and that increased testing has revealed the true scope of the disease. Initially, the US had maintained a much higher CFR than South Korea (3-4% vs. South Korea's consistently less than 2% CFR), but as testing rates increased in the US and fatality rates caught up with confirmed case rates in South Korea, the two countries have converged to statistically similar CFRs (1.52% in the US vs. 1.42% in South Korea). However, the current trend in the US is a slight increase in CFR meaning that the scope of disease transmission in the US might still be underestimated.

Meanwhile, Italy has continued its trend of vastly outranking the world in deaths with a 10.01% CFR. At the time of this writing (03/26/2020), Italy has surpassed China by around 2 fold the number of deaths, making it the most impacted country to date in terms of clinical severity. Globally, the average CFR has been on an increasing trend, with the global CFR of 3.4% being having been breached since March 10th. Today, the global average CFR is 4.51%, an increase most likely driven by high fatality countries still experiencing the exponential phase of their epidemics, including Italy, Spain, Iran, France, the UK, and the US. In contrast, both Germany and Australian CFRs have remained low (0.55% and 0.34% respectively), suggesting these countries might be better indicators of “best case” scenarios, as opposed to South Korea. I would expect an optimal testing scenario to yield CFRs similar to South Korea's 1.52%, although as previously mentioned Germany and Australia have demonstrated lower numbers are possible, but both of these countries might be much earlier in their epidemic phase compared to South Korea, which is no longer experiencing exponential growth.

Recently, the CDC has published a report on fatality rate by demographic group in the US, which closely matches what was previously published by the WHO: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm. Current estimates of US national testing rates suggest at least 94,514 US individuals had been tested for COVID-19 (CDC+Public Health Labs combined), compared to South Korea's 357,896 tested as of 03/25/2020. (Data source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE 02/27/2020-03/25/2020; worldometers.info; South Korea testing stats: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030; US Testing stats: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html).

03/20/2020 | COVID-19 Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 03/20/2020, IIRESS Labs

Figure 1. As of March 20th, for the US, Johns Hopkins currently reports 14250 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 and 205 deaths. US COVID-19 CFR had spiked up to 7.4% (03/03/2020) following a series of added deaths in a nursing home in King County, Washington then has continued to fall to 1.4% (03/20/2020) as testing rates pick up nationally. This is consistent with the “testing lag” hypothesis, and that states and federal agencies are now ramping up testing capacity. The sharp decline of US CFR from 7.4% to 1.4% highlights the importance of rapid COVID-19 testing to identify early-stage illness. Of the 14,024 (worldometers.info) active US cases, 64 (0.46%) of them are reported as critical or severe, a stark contrast for the expected 20% critical rate previously published by the World Health Organization (WHO), meaning that the chance of additional US fatalities is extremely high and that critical cases are currently under-reported, along with total reported cases. Experts have suggested that vast numbers of individuals are currently infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 nationally. The trend to look for will be whether we see US CFR stabilizes around South Korea's number (1.09%) or closer to Italy's number (8.3%). Italy is currently experiencing a catastrophic increase in deaths associated with a lack of hospital capacity causing its CFR to spike high above the global average.

Global CFR has steadily risen from 3.4% (3/8/2020) to 4.09% (3/20/2020) most likely driven by the large number of deaths in Italy. In contrast, Germany has identified 16,290 positive COVID-19 cases, but only suffered 44 deaths, or 0.3%. It's currently uncertain why Germany's CFR is significantly lower than South Korea's or the US, but current reports suggest extensive hospital facilities and healthcare structure contribute to reduced fatality, as well as the possibility Germany is earlier in its epidemic phase than Italy or the US. I would expect an optimal testing scenario to yield CFRs similar to South Korea's 1.09%. Recently, the CDC has published a report on fatality rates in the US: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm. Current estimates of US national testing rates suggest at least 44,872 US individuals had been tested for COVID-19 (CDC+Public Health Labs combined), compared to South Korea's 316,664 tested as of 03/20/2020. (Data source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE 02/27/2020-03/20/2020; worldometers.info; South Korea testing stats: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030; US Testing stats: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html).


03/15/2020 | COVID-19 Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

  • IIRESS Labs running COVID-19 CFR estimates (updated 03/15/2020)
  • Global CFR: 3.73% (95% CI, 3.64-3.82%)
  • US CFR: 1.93% (95% CI, 1.47-2.50%)
  • Italy CFR: 6.81% (95% CI, 6.48-7.16%)
  • South Korea CFR: 0.89% (95% CI, 0.70-1.12%)

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 03/14/2020, IIRESS Labs

Figure 1. As of March 14th, for the US, Johns Hopkins currently reports 2951 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 and 57 deaths. US COVID-19 CFR had spiked up to 7.4% (03/03/2020) following a series of added deaths in a nursing home in King County, Washington then has continued to fall to 1.9% (03/15/2020) as testing rates pick up nationally. This is consistent with the “testing lag” hypothesis, and that states and federal agencies are now ramping up testing capacity. The sharp decline of US CFR from 7.4% to 1.9% highlights the importance of rapid COVID-19 testing to identify early-stage illness. Of the 2927 (worldometers.info) active US cases, 10 (0.34%) of them are reported as critical or severe, a stark contrast for the expected 20% critical rate previously published by the World Health Organization (WHO), meaning that the chance of additional US fatalities is extremely high and that critical cases are currently under-reported, along with total reported cases. Experts have suggested that vast numbers of individuals are currently infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 nationally. The next trend to look for will be whether we see US CFR stabilizes around South Korea's number (0.89%) or closer to Italy's number (6.81%). Italy is currently experiencing a catastrophic increase in deaths associated with a lack of hospital capacity causing its CFR to spike high above the global average of 3.73%. I would expect an optimal testing scenario to yield CFRs similar to South Korea's 0.89%. Current estimates of US national testing rates suggest at least 19,74 US individuals had been tested for COVID-19 (CDC+Public Health Labs combined), compared to South Korea's 268,212 tested as of 03/14/2020. (Data source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE 02/27/2020-03/14/2020; worldometers.info; South Korea testing stats: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030; US Testing stats: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html).


03/11/2020 | COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

  • IIRESS Labs running COVID-19 CFR estimate
  • Global CFR: 3.67% (95% CI, 3.57-3.78%) (updated 03/11/2020)
  • US CFR: 2.7% (95% CI, 1.83-3.84%) (updated 03/11/2020)
  • Italy CFR: 6.64% (95% CI, 6.21-7.01%)
  • South Korea CFR: 0.79% (95% CI, 0.60-1.01%)

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 03/11/2020, IIRESS Labs

Figure 1. As of March 11th, for the US, Johns Hopkins currently reports 1110 infected and 30 deaths for positive cases of COVID-19. US COVID-19 CFR had spiked up to 7.4% (03/03/2020) then dropped back down to 2.7% (03/11/2020) following a series of added deaths in a nursing home in King County, Washington. This is consistent with the “testing lag” hypothesis, and that states and federal agencies are now ramping up testing capacity. The sharp decline of US CFR from 7.4% to 2.7% highlights the importance of rapid COVID-19 testing to identify early-stage illness. Of the 1063 active US cases, 10 (0.94%) of them are reported as critical or severe, a stark contrast for the expected 20% critical rate previously published by the World Health Organization (WHO), meaning that the chance of additional US fatalities is extremely high and that critical cases are currently under-reported, along with total reported cases. Experts have suggested that up to 9,000 individuals are currently infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 nationally. The next trend to look for will be whether we see US CFR stabilizes around South Korea's number (0.79%) or closer to Italy's number (6.64%). Italy is currently experiencing a catastrophic increase in deaths associated with a lack of hospital capacity causing its CFR to spike high above the global average of 3.7%. I would expect an optimal testing scenario to yield CFRs similar to South Korea's 0.79%. Current estimates of US national testing rates suggest at least 7,288 US individuals had been tested for COVID-19 (CDC+Public Health Labs combined), compared to South Korea's 214,640 tested as of 03/11/2020. (Data source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE 02/27/2020-03/11/2020; worldometers.info; South Korea testing stats: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030; US Testing stats: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html).


03/08/2020 | COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

  • IIRESS Labs running COVID-19 CFR estimate
  • Global CFR: 3.4% (95% CI, 3.3-3.5%) (updated 03/03/2020)
  • US CFR: 4.0% (95% CI, 2.4-6.2%) (updated 03/08/2020)
  • Italy CFR: 4.97% (95% CI, 4.48-5.48%)
  • South Korea CFR: 0.68% (95% CI, 0.51-0.90%)

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 03/08/2020, IIRESS Labs

Figure 1. As of March 8th, for the US, Johns Hopkins currently reports 474 infected and 19 deaths for positive cases of COVID-19. US COVID-19 CFR had spiked up to 7.4% (03/03/2020) then dropped back down to 4.0% (03/08/2020) following a series of added deaths in a nursing home in King County, Washington. This is consistent with the “testing lag” hypothesis, and that states are now ramping up testing capacity. Of the 450 active US cases, 8 (1.7%) of them are reported as critical or severe, a stark contrast for the expected 20% critical rate previously published by the World Health Organization (WHO), meaning that the chance of additional US fatalities is extremely high and that critical cases are currently under-reported, along with total reported cases. Following this line of reasoning, we should see a continued decrease in US CFR, and increase in critical rate as state and federal testing capacities ramp up. The next trend to look for will be whether we see US CFR stabilizes around South Korea's number (0.68%) or closer to Italy's number (4.96%), which is close to the global average of 3.4%. I would expect an optimal testing scenario to yield CFRs similar to South Korea's 0.68%. Current US National testing statistics were frozen by the CDC as of March 2nd at 472 tests performed, a significant deficit compared to South Korea's 171,422 tested as of 03/08/2020. The CDC is currently reporting 1,583 tests performed at the CDC as of 03/05/2020. (Data source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE 02/27/2020-03/07/2020; worldometers.info; https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030).


03/07/2020 | COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

  • IIRESS Labs running COVID-19 CFR estimate
  • Global CFR: 3.4% (95% CI, 3.3-3.5%) (updated 03/03/2020)
  • US CFR: 4.2% (95% CI, 2.5-6.7%) (updated 03/05/2020)

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 03/07/2020, IIRESS Labs

Figure 1. As of March 7th, for the US, Johns Hopkins currently reports 401 infected and 17 deaths for positive cases of COVID-19. US COVID-19 CFR had spiked up to 7.4% (03/03/2020) then dropped back down to 4.2% (03/07/2020) following a series of added deaths in a nursing home in Washington, followed by a stall in newly detected cases, and then dropped as a wave of new cases were added. This is consistent with the “testing lag” hypothesis, and that states are now ramping up testing capacity. Following that line of reasoning, we should see a continued decrease in CFR as detected cases begins to outpace attributable deaths. The next trend to look for will be whether we see US CFR stabilizes around South Korea's number (0.65%) or closer to Italy's number (3.96%), which is close to the global average of 3.4%. I would expect an optimal testing scenario to yield CFRs similar to South Korea's 0.65%. Current US National testing statistics were frozen by the CDC as of March 2nd at 472 tests performed, a significant deficit compared to South Korea's 109,591 tested. The CDC is currently reporting 1,583 tests performed at the CDC as of 03/05/2020. (Data source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE 02/27/2020-03/07/2020; worldometers.info).


03/05/2020 | COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

  • IIRESS Labs running COVID-19 CFR estimate
  • Global CFR: 3.4% (95% CI, 3.3-3.5%) (updated 03/03/2020)
  • US CFR: 5.2% (95% CI, 2.7-8.8%) (updated 03/05/2020)

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 03/05/2020, IIRESS Labs

Figure 1. US COVID-19 CFR had spiked up to 7.4% then dropped back down to 5.2% following a series of added deaths but brief stall in newly detected cases, and then dropped as a wave of new cases were added. This is consistent with the “testing lag” hypothesis, and that states are now ramping up testing capacity. Following that line of reasoning, we should see a continued decrease in CFR as detected cases begins to outpace attributable deaths. The next trend to look for will be whether we see US CFR stabilizes around South Korea's number (0.64%) or closer to Italy's number (3.84%), which is close to the global average of 3.4%. I would expect an optimal testing scenario to yield CFRs similar to South Korea's 0.64%. Current US testing statistics were frozen by the CDC as of March 2nd at 472 tests performed, a significant deficit compared to South Korea's 109,591 tested. (Data source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE 02/27/2020-03/05/2020; worldometers.info).


03/03/2020 | COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

  • IIRESS Labs running COVID-19 CFR estimate (updated 03/03/2020)
  • Global CFR: 3.4% (95% CI, 3.3-3.5%)
  • US CFR: 6.0% (95% CI, 2.4-11.9%)

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 03/03/2020, IIRESS Labs

Figure 1. Global case fatality rate (CFR) for clinically reported cases of COVID-19 is on average 3.4% (95% CI, 3.3-3.5%). US CFR is on average 6.0% (95% CI, 2.4-11.9%), suggesting either a higher CFR than global rates or significantly under-reported infection rates inflating local CFR. In the latter case I would expect the CFR to drop as testing facilities increased and fall more in line with the global CFR. In the former, that would suggest the US is experiencing a differential infection rate in its population, and the CFR is a reflection of increased infection rate in more at risk (e.g., elderly) populations. Source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE (02/27/2020-03/03/2020).


03/01/2020 | COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

  • IIRESS Labs running COVID-19 CFR estimate (updated 03/01/2020)
  • Global CFR: 3.4%
  • US CFR: 2.3%

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 03/01/2020, IIRESS Labs

labs/covid19_cfr_reports.txt · Last modified: 2020/05/25 08:05 by bpwhite