*Note: Pre-print articles have not yet been peer-reviewed and their results are subject to change or retraction. While they can be useful indicators of the direction of current research, waiting for full peer-review results is the best practice when making clinical or critical research decisions.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the disease caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2
SARS-CoV-2 is closely related to the viruses that cause SARS and MERS, which have both caused severe outbreaks of respiratory disease.
Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in the US seems relatively stable at 5.6%, Italy/Spain/France at 10-14%.
⇒ Case fatality rate is the proportion of attributable number of deaths from a disease to reported (clinical) cases.
Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) in the US is still currently unknown with scientific certainty.
⇒ Infection fatality rate (IFR) is the proportion of attributable number of deaths to all those infected (includes sub-clinical and asymptomatic cases) and is expected to be lower than CFR. This number can be estimated during an epidemic/pandemic from antibody (by determining seroprevalence) studies.
⇒ SARS-CoV-2 has a very high asymptomatic rate that makes it difficult to estimate this number, meaning that estimates will vary widely between region and testing methodology.
Seroprevalence is the prevalence of antibodies in a population, meaning the percent of individuals that have or have recently had the disease, regardless of disease status (asymptomatic, sub-clinical, or full-clinical presentation).
⇒ Current seroprevalence estimates range from 1.5% up to 30%, varying from region and testing methodology (Levesque and Maybury, 2020).
⇒ Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is not currently known with scientific certainty in the US.
Mortality rate is the attributable rate of deaths due to a disease in a population (e.g., out of 100,000 people what is the risk of death for a particular disease).
⇒ This number is not typically estimated until after an epidemic/pandemic.
⇒ Mortality rate of COVID-19 is not currently known with scientific certainty in the US.
Table 1. IIRESS Labs running COVID-19 Estimated CFR (CFR) - 05/10/2020
|Country||Infections||Deaths||CFR||95% Confidence Interval|
|USA||1,329,799||79,528||5.98%||(5.94 - 6.02%)|
|Spain||224,350||26,621||11.87%||(11.73 - 12.00%)|
|UK||220,449||31,930||14.48%||(14.34 - 14.63%)|
|Italy||219,070||30,560||13.95%||(13.80 - 14.09%)|
|Russia||209,688||1,915||0.91%||(0.87 - 0.95%)|
|France||177,094||26,383||14.90%||(14.73 - 15.06%)|
|Germany||171,879||7,569||4.40%||(4.31 - 4.50%)|
|China||84,010||4,637||5.52%||(5.37 - 5.67%)|
|South Korea||10,909||256||2.35%||(2.06 - 2.63%)|
|Australia||6,948||97||1.4%||(1.12 - 1.67%)|
|Global||4,103,136||282,719||6.89%||(6.87 - 6.91%)|
Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering, Coronavirus (COVID-19) Live Map: Source
Preliminary Data Suggests Stay-At-Home Orders Work (Original Analysis):
Quadrant 1 - High Risk for Disease Resurgence, Increasing Risk (Moderate → High)
Alabama, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia
Quadrant 2 - Current Resurgence, Social distancing response, Decreasing Risk (High → Moderate)
Quadrant 3 - Decreasing Risk, Reduced Distancing (Moderate → Low)
Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Indiana Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming
Quadrant 4 - Decreasing Risk, Active Containment (Moderate → Low)
Idaho, Illinois, Oregon, Washington
Classification of quadrants
Featured Report, May 2020
Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at University of Minnesota
Estimates of Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
Estimates of Mortality Rate
Estimates of Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
Immune System Function
Sensory Dysfunction (Loss of smell and taste)
Patient-Derived Mutation Pathogenecity
Figure 5. Sequence diversity of 3,170 SARS-CoV-2 strains during the 2019/2020 global coronavirus pandemic (Source: http://www.nextstrain.org)
Today's episode is a special feature episode of the Planetary News Radio. It is in times of great need that scientists and community members must join together to protect the community, whether that is at the national level, state level, city, or friends and family. As you all know, the coronavirus (COVID-19) has rapidly spread around the world, and we are seeing increasingly sweeping government responses to this outbreak, including quarantines, travel restrictions, and the bolstering of healthcare services. Listen to my status update on the pandemic here in Corvallis, Oregon, as well as a global perspective. For more coronavirus data analytics and updates, visit http://ncov.iiress.com. For transcripts and show notes, visit on the web at: http://www.iiress.com/planetary/podcasts.
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