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labs:covid19_doubling_reports

Archived novel coronavirus (COVID-19) Confirmed Case Doubling Rates

Maintained by: Bryan P. White

03/16/2020 | Current COVID-19 Confirmed Case Doubling Rate in the US

Current US Doubling Rate: 3 Days (As of 03/16/2020)
Next US Doubling Point: Correction: 9728 8960 confirmed cases (Expected: 03/19/2020)

Current COVID-19 Doubling Rate in the US

Figure 2. Current US COVID-19 doubling rate using the date of the first US death (2/29/2020) as the nucleation point for binning. Data through 3/16 is from Johns Hopkins CSSE. Data for 3/19 is the anticipated doubling point using a 3 day time frame based on the next anticipated point of 9278 US reported cases. The rate has slowed recently, dropping down from a 2 day doubling time 3 periods in a row, suggesting that testing has finally begun to catch up to existing infections. However, continued growth at a 3 day doubling time suggests that US testing is both picking up pace, as well as transmission rates via community transmission are continuing to occur at an exponential rate. This would fit the model of COVID-19 having a higher R0 (“contagion factor”) than seasonal flu (1.4 to 3.8 of COVID-19 compared to 1.28 for seasonal flu). As the United States enacts sweeping “social distancing” rules at both the state and federal level the spread of COVID-19 is expected to begin slowing further.

R0 COVID-19: https://promedmail.org/promed-post/?id=20200126.6918012

R0 Seasonal Flu: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/25186370/

Raw data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series

Note: Not meant to be a statistical analysis of true biological doubling rate. This data visualization is meant to guide exploratory data analysis and not meant as a rigorous predictive model.

03/13/2020 | Current COVID-19 Confirmed Case Doubling Rate in the US

Current US Doubling Rate: 2 Days (03/13/2020)
Next US Doubling Point: 4480 confirmed cases (Expected: 03/15/2020)

Current COVID-19 Doubling Rate in the US

Figure 2. Current US COVID-19 doubling rate using the date of the first US death (2/29/2020) as the nucleation point for binning. Data through 3/13 is from Johns Hopkins CSSE and 3/14 is inferred from daily reported cases as of 1:30 AM (https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en). Data for 3/15 is the anticipated doubling point using a 2 day time frame based on the next anticipated point of 4480 US reported cases. Continued growth at a 2 day doubling time suggests that US testing is both picking up pace, as well as transmission rates via community transmission continuing to occur at an exponential rate. This would fit the model of COVID-19 having a higher R0 (“contagion factor”) than seasonal flu (1.4 to 3.8 of COVID-19 compared to 1.28 for seasonal flu).

R0 COVID-19: https://promedmail.org/promed-post/?id=20200126.6918012

R0 Seasonal Flu: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/25186370/

Note: Not meant to be a statistical analysis of true biological doubling rate.

03/12/2020 | COVID-19 Confirmed Case Doubling Rate in the US

Current US Doubling Rate: 2 Days (03/12/2020) Next US Doubling Point: 2240 confirmed cases (Expected: 03/13/2020)

Current COVID-19 Doubling Rate in the US

Figure 2. Current US COVID-19 doubling rate using the date of the first US death (2/29/2020) as the nucleation point for binning. Data through 3/11 is from Johns Hopkins CSSE and 3/12 is inferred from daily reported cases as of 11:00 AM (https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en). Data for 3/13 is the anticipated doubling point using a 2 day time frame based on the next anticipated point of 2240 US reported cases. Continued growth at a 2-3 day doubling time suggests that US testing is both picking up pace, as well as transmission rates via community transmission continuing to occur at an exponential rate. This would fit the model of COVID-19 having a higher R0 (“contagion factor”) than seasonal flu (1.4 to 3.8 of COVID-19 compared to 1.28 for seasonal flu).

R0 COVID-19: https://promedmail.org/promed-post/?id=20200126.6918012

R0 Seasonal Flu: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/25186370/

labs/covid19_doubling_reports.txt · Last modified: 2020/03/19 06:17 by bpwhite