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Archived novel coronavirus (COVID-19) estimated case fatality rate (CFR) reports

03/25/2020 | COVID-19 Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

IIRESS Labs running COVID-19 CFR estimates (updated 03/25/2020)

  • Global CFR: 4.51% (95% CI, 4.45-4.57%)
  • US CFR: 1.52% (95% CI, 1.43-1.61%)
  • Italy CFR: 10.1% (95% CI, 9.87-10.31%)
  • South Korea CFR: 1.42% (95% CI, 1.19-1.68%)
  • Germany CFR: 0.55% (95% CI, 0.48-0.63%)
  • Australia CFR: 0.34% (95% CI, 0.15-0.67%)

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 03/25/2020, IIRESS Labs

Figure 1. As of March 25th, for the US, Johns Hopkins currently reports 69,197 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 and 1050 deaths. US COVID-19 CFR had peaked at around 7.4% (03/03/2020) following a series of deaths in a nursing home in King County, Washington then has continued to fall to 1.52% (03/25/2020) as testing rates picked up nationally. This is consistent with the “testing lag” hypothesis, and that states and federal agencies are now ramping up testing capacity. The sharp decline of US CFR from 7.4% to 1.52% highlights the importance of rapid COVID-19 testing to identify early-stage illness. Of the 69,197 (worldometers.info) active US cases, 1,455 (2.1%) of them are reported as critical or severe, a stark contrast for the expected 20% critical rate published by the World Health Organization (WHO), meaning that the chance of additional US fatalities is extremely high and that critical cases are currently under-reported. Experts have suggested that vast numbers of individuals are currently infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus nationally and that increased testing has revealed the true scope of the disease. Initially, the US had maintained a much higher CFR than South Korea (3-4% vs. South Korea's consistently less than 2% CFR), but as testing rates increased in the US and fatality rates caught up with confirmed case rates in South Korea, the two countries have converged to statistically similar CFRs (1.52% in the US vs. 1.42% in South Korea). However, the current trend in the US is a slight increase in CFR meaning that the scope of disease transmission in the US might still be underestimated.

Meanwhile, Italy has continued its trend of vastly outranking the world in deaths with a 10.01% CFR. At the time of this writing (03/26/2020), Italy has surpassed China by around 2 fold the number of deaths, making it the most impacted country to date in terms of clinical severity. Globally, the average CFR has been on an increasing trend, with the global CFR of 3.4% being having been breached since March 10th. Today, the global average CFR is 4.51%, an increase most likely driven by high fatality countries still experiencing the exponential phase of their epidemics, including Italy, Spain, Iran, France, the UK, and the US. In contrast, both Germany and Australian CFRs have remained low (0.55% and 0.34% respectively), suggesting these countries might be better indicators of “best case” scenarios, as opposed to South Korea. I would expect an optimal testing scenario to yield CFRs similar to South Korea's 1.52%, although as previously mentioned Germany and Australia have demonstrated lower numbers are possible, but both of these countries might be much earlier in their epidemic phase compared to South Korea, which is no longer experiencing exponential growth.

Recently, the CDC has published a report on fatality rate by demographic group in the US, which closely matches what was previously published by the WHO: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm. Current estimates of US national testing rates suggest at least 94,514 US individuals had been tested for COVID-19 (CDC+Public Health Labs combined), compared to South Korea's 357,896 tested as of 03/25/2020. (Data source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE 02/27/2020-03/25/2020; worldometers.info; South Korea testing stats: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030; US Testing stats: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html).

03/20/2020 | COVID-19 Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 03/20/2020, IIRESS Labs

Figure 1. As of March 20th, for the US, Johns Hopkins currently reports 14250 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 and 205 deaths. US COVID-19 CFR had spiked up to 7.4% (03/03/2020) following a series of added deaths in a nursing home in King County, Washington then has continued to fall to 1.4% (03/20/2020) as testing rates pick up nationally. This is consistent with the “testing lag” hypothesis, and that states and federal agencies are now ramping up testing capacity. The sharp decline of US CFR from 7.4% to 1.4% highlights the importance of rapid COVID-19 testing to identify early-stage illness. Of the 14,024 (worldometers.info) active US cases, 64 (0.46%) of them are reported as critical or severe, a stark contrast for the expected 20% critical rate previously published by the World Health Organization (WHO), meaning that the chance of additional US fatalities is extremely high and that critical cases are currently under-reported, along with total reported cases. Experts have suggested that vast numbers of individuals are currently infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 nationally. The trend to look for will be whether we see US CFR stabilizes around South Korea's number (1.09%) or closer to Italy's number (8.3%). Italy is currently experiencing a catastrophic increase in deaths associated with a lack of hospital capacity causing its CFR to spike high above the global average.

Global CFR has steadily risen from 3.4% (3/8/2020) to 4.09% (3/20/2020) most likely driven by the large number of deaths in Italy. In contrast, Germany has identified 16,290 positive COVID-19 cases, but only suffered 44 deaths, or 0.3%. It's currently uncertain why Germany's CFR is significantly lower than South Korea's or the US, but current reports suggest extensive hospital facilities and healthcare structure contribute to reduced fatality, as well as the possibility Germany is earlier in its epidemic phase than Italy or the US. I would expect an optimal testing scenario to yield CFRs similar to South Korea's 1.09%. Recently, the CDC has published a report on fatality rates in the US: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm. Current estimates of US national testing rates suggest at least 44,872 US individuals had been tested for COVID-19 (CDC+Public Health Labs combined), compared to South Korea's 316,664 tested as of 03/20/2020. (Data source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE 02/27/2020-03/20/2020; worldometers.info; South Korea testing stats: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030; US Testing stats: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html).


03/15/2020 | COVID-19 Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

  • IIRESS Labs running COVID-19 CFR estimates (updated 03/15/2020)
  • Global CFR: 3.73% (95% CI, 3.64-3.82%)
  • US CFR: 1.93% (95% CI, 1.47-2.50%)
  • Italy CFR: 6.81% (95% CI, 6.48-7.16%)
  • South Korea CFR: 0.89% (95% CI, 0.70-1.12%)

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 03/14/2020, IIRESS Labs

Figure 1. As of March 14th, for the US, Johns Hopkins currently reports 2951 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 and 57 deaths. US COVID-19 CFR had spiked up to 7.4% (03/03/2020) following a series of added deaths in a nursing home in King County, Washington then has continued to fall to 1.9% (03/15/2020) as testing rates pick up nationally. This is consistent with the “testing lag” hypothesis, and that states and federal agencies are now ramping up testing capacity. The sharp decline of US CFR from 7.4% to 1.9% highlights the importance of rapid COVID-19 testing to identify early-stage illness. Of the 2927 (worldometers.info) active US cases, 10 (0.34%) of them are reported as critical or severe, a stark contrast for the expected 20% critical rate previously published by the World Health Organization (WHO), meaning that the chance of additional US fatalities is extremely high and that critical cases are currently under-reported, along with total reported cases. Experts have suggested that vast numbers of individuals are currently infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 nationally. The next trend to look for will be whether we see US CFR stabilizes around South Korea's number (0.89%) or closer to Italy's number (6.81%). Italy is currently experiencing a catastrophic increase in deaths associated with a lack of hospital capacity causing its CFR to spike high above the global average of 3.73%. I would expect an optimal testing scenario to yield CFRs similar to South Korea's 0.89%. Current estimates of US national testing rates suggest at least 19,74 US individuals had been tested for COVID-19 (CDC+Public Health Labs combined), compared to South Korea's 268,212 tested as of 03/14/2020. (Data source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE 02/27/2020-03/14/2020; worldometers.info; South Korea testing stats: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030; US Testing stats: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html).


03/11/2020 | COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

  • IIRESS Labs running COVID-19 CFR estimate
  • Global CFR: 3.67% (95% CI, 3.57-3.78%) (updated 03/11/2020)
  • US CFR: 2.7% (95% CI, 1.83-3.84%) (updated 03/11/2020)
  • Italy CFR: 6.64% (95% CI, 6.21-7.01%)
  • South Korea CFR: 0.79% (95% CI, 0.60-1.01%)

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 03/11/2020, IIRESS Labs

Figure 1. As of March 11th, for the US, Johns Hopkins currently reports 1110 infected and 30 deaths for positive cases of COVID-19. US COVID-19 CFR had spiked up to 7.4% (03/03/2020) then dropped back down to 2.7% (03/11/2020) following a series of added deaths in a nursing home in King County, Washington. This is consistent with the “testing lag” hypothesis, and that states and federal agencies are now ramping up testing capacity. The sharp decline of US CFR from 7.4% to 2.7% highlights the importance of rapid COVID-19 testing to identify early-stage illness. Of the 1063 active US cases, 10 (0.94%) of them are reported as critical or severe, a stark contrast for the expected 20% critical rate previously published by the World Health Organization (WHO), meaning that the chance of additional US fatalities is extremely high and that critical cases are currently under-reported, along with total reported cases. Experts have suggested that up to 9,000 individuals are currently infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 nationally. The next trend to look for will be whether we see US CFR stabilizes around South Korea's number (0.79%) or closer to Italy's number (6.64%). Italy is currently experiencing a catastrophic increase in deaths associated with a lack of hospital capacity causing its CFR to spike high above the global average of 3.7%. I would expect an optimal testing scenario to yield CFRs similar to South Korea's 0.79%. Current estimates of US national testing rates suggest at least 7,288 US individuals had been tested for COVID-19 (CDC+Public Health Labs combined), compared to South Korea's 214,640 tested as of 03/11/2020. (Data source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE 02/27/2020-03/11/2020; worldometers.info; South Korea testing stats: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030; US Testing stats: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html).


03/08/2020 | COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

  • IIRESS Labs running COVID-19 CFR estimate
  • Global CFR: 3.4% (95% CI, 3.3-3.5%) (updated 03/03/2020)
  • US CFR: 4.0% (95% CI, 2.4-6.2%) (updated 03/08/2020)
  • Italy CFR: 4.97% (95% CI, 4.48-5.48%)
  • South Korea CFR: 0.68% (95% CI, 0.51-0.90%)

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 03/08/2020, IIRESS Labs

Figure 1. As of March 8th, for the US, Johns Hopkins currently reports 474 infected and 19 deaths for positive cases of COVID-19. US COVID-19 CFR had spiked up to 7.4% (03/03/2020) then dropped back down to 4.0% (03/08/2020) following a series of added deaths in a nursing home in King County, Washington. This is consistent with the “testing lag” hypothesis, and that states are now ramping up testing capacity. Of the 450 active US cases, 8 (1.7%) of them are reported as critical or severe, a stark contrast for the expected 20% critical rate previously published by the World Health Organization (WHO), meaning that the chance of additional US fatalities is extremely high and that critical cases are currently under-reported, along with total reported cases. Following this line of reasoning, we should see a continued decrease in US CFR, and increase in critical rate as state and federal testing capacities ramp up. The next trend to look for will be whether we see US CFR stabilizes around South Korea's number (0.68%) or closer to Italy's number (4.96%), which is close to the global average of 3.4%. I would expect an optimal testing scenario to yield CFRs similar to South Korea's 0.68%. Current US National testing statistics were frozen by the CDC as of March 2nd at 472 tests performed, a significant deficit compared to South Korea's 171,422 tested as of 03/08/2020. The CDC is currently reporting 1,583 tests performed at the CDC as of 03/05/2020. (Data source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE 02/27/2020-03/07/2020; worldometers.info; https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030).


03/07/2020 | COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

  • IIRESS Labs running COVID-19 CFR estimate
  • Global CFR: 3.4% (95% CI, 3.3-3.5%) (updated 03/03/2020)
  • US CFR: 4.2% (95% CI, 2.5-6.7%) (updated 03/05/2020)

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 03/07/2020, IIRESS Labs

Figure 1. As of March 7th, for the US, Johns Hopkins currently reports 401 infected and 17 deaths for positive cases of COVID-19. US COVID-19 CFR had spiked up to 7.4% (03/03/2020) then dropped back down to 4.2% (03/07/2020) following a series of added deaths in a nursing home in Washington, followed by a stall in newly detected cases, and then dropped as a wave of new cases were added. This is consistent with the “testing lag” hypothesis, and that states are now ramping up testing capacity. Following that line of reasoning, we should see a continued decrease in CFR as detected cases begins to outpace attributable deaths. The next trend to look for will be whether we see US CFR stabilizes around South Korea's number (0.65%) or closer to Italy's number (3.96%), which is close to the global average of 3.4%. I would expect an optimal testing scenario to yield CFRs similar to South Korea's 0.65%. Current US National testing statistics were frozen by the CDC as of March 2nd at 472 tests performed, a significant deficit compared to South Korea's 109,591 tested. The CDC is currently reporting 1,583 tests performed at the CDC as of 03/05/2020. (Data source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE 02/27/2020-03/07/2020; worldometers.info).


03/05/2020 | COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

  • IIRESS Labs running COVID-19 CFR estimate
  • Global CFR: 3.4% (95% CI, 3.3-3.5%) (updated 03/03/2020)
  • US CFR: 5.2% (95% CI, 2.7-8.8%) (updated 03/05/2020)

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 03/05/2020, IIRESS Labs

Figure 1. US COVID-19 CFR had spiked up to 7.4% then dropped back down to 5.2% following a series of added deaths but brief stall in newly detected cases, and then dropped as a wave of new cases were added. This is consistent with the “testing lag” hypothesis, and that states are now ramping up testing capacity. Following that line of reasoning, we should see a continued decrease in CFR as detected cases begins to outpace attributable deaths. The next trend to look for will be whether we see US CFR stabilizes around South Korea's number (0.64%) or closer to Italy's number (3.84%), which is close to the global average of 3.4%. I would expect an optimal testing scenario to yield CFRs similar to South Korea's 0.64%. Current US testing statistics were frozen by the CDC as of March 2nd at 472 tests performed, a significant deficit compared to South Korea's 109,591 tested. (Data source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE 02/27/2020-03/05/2020; worldometers.info).


03/03/2020 | COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

  • IIRESS Labs running COVID-19 CFR estimate (updated 03/03/2020)
  • Global CFR: 3.4% (95% CI, 3.3-3.5%)
  • US CFR: 6.0% (95% CI, 2.4-11.9%)

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 03/03/2020, IIRESS Labs

Figure 1. Global case fatality rate (CFR) for clinically reported cases of COVID-19 is on average 3.4% (95% CI, 3.3-3.5%). US CFR is on average 6.0% (95% CI, 2.4-11.9%), suggesting either a higher CFR than global rates or significantly under-reported infection rates inflating local CFR. In the latter case I would expect the CFR to drop as testing facilities increased and fall more in line with the global CFR. In the former, that would suggest the US is experiencing a differential infection rate in its population, and the CFR is a reflection of increased infection rate in more at risk (e.g., elderly) populations. Source: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE (02/27/2020-03/03/2020).


03/01/2020 | COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

  • IIRESS Labs running COVID-19 CFR estimate (updated 03/01/2020)
  • Global CFR: 3.4%
  • US CFR: 2.3%

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR), 03/01/2020, IIRESS Labs

labs/covid19_cfr_reports.txt · Last modified: 2020/04/02 04:01 by bpwhite